Strategy selection and outcome prediction in sport using dynamic learning for stochastic processes

We study reliability equivalence factors of a system of independent and identical components with exponentiated Weibull lifetimes. The system has n subsystems connected in parallel and subsystem i has mi components connected in series, i=1,…,n. We consider improving the reliability of the system by (a) a reduction method and (b) several duplication methods: (i) hot duplication; (ii) cold duplication with perfect switching; (iii) cold duplication with imperfect switching. We compute two types of reliability equivalence factors: survival equivalence factors and mean equivalence factors. Although our methods adapt to allow for general lifetime models, we use the exponentiated Weibull distribution because it is flexible and enables comparisons with other reliability equivalence studies. The example we present demonstrates the potential for applying these methods to address specific questions that arise when attempting to improve the reliability of simple systems or simple configurations of possibly complex subsystems in many diverse applications

Hospital discharge planning and continuity of care for aged people in an Italian local health unit: does the care-home model reduce hospital readmission and mortality rates?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hospital discharge planning is aimed to decrease length of stay in hospitals as well as to ensure continuity of health care after being discharged. Hospitalized patients in Turin, Italy, who are in need of medical, social and rehabilitative care are proposed as candidates to either discharge planning relying on a care-home model (DPCH) for a period of about 30 days, or routine discharge care. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether a hospital DPCH that was compared with routine care, improved patients' outcomes in terms of reduced hospital readmission and mortality rates in patients aged 64 years and older.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a retrospective observational cohort study a sample of 380 subjects aged 64 years and over was examined. Participants were discharged from the hospital S.Giovanni Bosco in Turin, Italy from March 1^st, 2005 to February 28^th, 2006. Of these subjects, 107 received routine discharge care while 273 patients were referred to care-home (among them, 99 received a long-term care intervention (LTCI) afterwards while 174 did not). Data was gathered from various administrative and electronic databases. Cox regression models were used to evaluate factors associated with mortality and hospital readmission.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>When socio-demographic factors, underlying disease and disability were taken into account, DPCH decreased mortality rates only if it was followed by a LTCI: compared to routine care, the Hazard Ratio (HR) of death was 0.36 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.20 – 0.66) and 1.15 (95%CI: 0.77 – 1.74) for DPCH followed by LTCI and DPCH not followed by LTCI, respectively. On the other hand, readmission rates did not significantly differ among DPCH and routine care, irrespective of the implementation of a LTCI: HRs of hospital readmission were 1.01 (95%CI: 0.48 – 2.24) and 1.18 (95%CI: 0.71 – 1.96), respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The use of DPCH after hospital discharge reduced mortality rates, but only when it was followed by a long-term health care plan, thus ensuring continuity of care for elderly participants.</p

Patterns of Interspecific Variation in the Heart Rates of Embryonic Reptiles

New non-invasive technologies allow direct measurement of heart rates (and thus, developmental rates) of embryos. We applied these methods to a diverse array of oviparous reptiles (24 species of lizards, 18 snakes, 11 turtles, 1 crocodilian), to identify general influences on cardiac rates during embryogenesis. Heart rates increased with ambient temperature in all lineages, but (at the same temperature) were faster in lizards and turtles than in snakes and crocodilians. We analysed these data within a phylogenetic framework. Embryonic heart rates were faster in species with smaller adult sizes, smaller egg sizes, and shorter incubation periods. Phylogenetic changes in heart rates were negatively correlated with concurrent changes in adult body mass and residual incubation period among the lizards, snakes (especially within pythons) and crocodilians. The total number of embryonic heart beats between oviposition and hatching was lower in squamates than in turtles or the crocodilian. Within squamates, embryonic iguanians and gekkonids required more heartbeats to complete development than did embryos of the other squamate families that we tested. These differences plausibly reflect phylogenetic divergence in the proportion of embryogenesis completed before versus after laying

Relationship between the morphology of the foveal avascular zone, retinal structure, and macular circulation in patients with diabetes mellitus

Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) is an extremely severe and common degenerative disease. The purpose of this study was to quantify the relationship between various parameters including the Foveal Avascular Zone (FAZ) morphology, retinal layer thickness, and retinal hemodynamic properties in healthy controls and patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) with and with no mild DR (MDR) using Spectral-Domain Optical Coherence Tomography (Spectralis SDOCT, Heidelberg Engineering GmbH, Germany) and the Retinal Function Imager (Optical Imaging, Ltd., Rehovot, Israel). Our results showed a higher FAZ area and diameter in MDR patients. Blood flow analysis also showed that there is a significantly smaller venous blood flow velocity in MDR patients. Also, a significant difference in roundness was observed between DM and MDR groups supporting the development of asymmetrical FAZ expansion with worsening DR. Our results suggest a potential anisotropy in the mechanical properties of the diabetic retina with no retinopathy that may trigger the FAZ elongation in a preferred direction resulting in either thinning or thickening of intraretinal layers in the inner and outer segments of the retina as a result of autoregulation. A detailed understanding of these relationships may facilitate earlier detection of DR, allowing for preservation of vision and better clinical outcomes

DRD4 Polymorphism Moderates the Effect of Alcohol Consumption on Social Bonding

Development of interpersonal relationships is a fundamental human motivation, and behaviors facilitating social bonding are prized. Some individuals experience enhanced reward from alcohol in social contexts and may be at heightened risk for developing and maintaining problematic drinking. We employed a 3 (group beverage condition) ×2 (genotype) design (N = 422) to test the moderating influence of the dopamine D4 receptor gene (DRD4 VNTR) polymorphism on the effects of alcohol on social bonding. A significant gene x environment interaction showed that carriers of at least one copy of the 7-repeat allele reported higher social bonding in the alcohol, relative to placebo or control conditions, whereas alcohol did not affect ratings of 7-absent allele carriers. Carriers of the 7-repeat allele were especially sensitive to alcohol's effects on social bonding. These data converge with other recent gene-environment interaction findings implicating the DRD4 polymorphism in the development of alcohol use disorders, and results suggest a specific pathway by which social factors may increase risk for problematic drinking among 7-repeat carriers. More generally, our findings highlight the potential utility of employing transdisciplinary methods that integrate genetic methodologies, social psychology, and addiction theory to improve theories of alcohol use and abuse

Study of 300,486 individuals identifies 148 independent genetic loci influencing general cognitive function

Correction Volume: 10, Article Number: 2068 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10160-w WOS:000466339700001General cognitive function is a prominent and relatively stable human trait that is associated with many important life outcomes. We combine cognitive and genetic data from the CHARGE and COGENT consortia, and UK Biobank (total N = 300,486; age 16-102) and find 148 genome-wide significant independent loci (P <5 x 10(-8)) associated with general cognitive function. Within the novel genetic loci are variants associated with neurodegenerative and neurodevelopmental disorders, physical and psychiatric illnesses, and brain structure. Gene-based analyses find 709 genes associated with general cognitive function. Expression levels across the cortex are associated with general cognitive function. Using polygenic scores, up to 4.3% of variance in general cognitive function is predicted in independent samples. We detect significant genetic overlap between general cognitive function, reaction time, and many health variables including eyesight, hypertension, and longevity. In conclusion we identify novel genetic loci and pathways contributing to the heritability of general cognitive function.Peer reviewe

Surface-Based Analyses of Anatomical Properties of the Visual Cortex in Macular Degeneration

INTRODUCTION: Macular degeneration (MD) can cause a central visual field defect. In a previous study, we found volumetric reductions along the entire visual pathways of MD patients, possibly indicating degeneration of inactive neuronal tissue. This may have important implications. In particular, new therapeutic strategies to restore retinal function rely on intact visual pathways and cortex to reestablish visual function. Here we reanalyze the data of our previous study using surface-based morphometry (SBM) rather than voxel-based morphometry (VBM). This can help determine the robustness of the findings and will lead to a better understanding of the nature of neuroanatomical changes associated with MD. METHODS: The metrics of interest were acquired by performing SBM analysis on T1-weighted MRI data acquired from 113 subjects: patients with juvenile MD (JMD; n = 34), patients with age-related MD (AMD; n = 24) and healthy age-matched controls (HC; n = 55). RESULTS: Relative to age-matched controls, JMD patients showed a thinner cortex, a smaller cortical surface area and a lower grey matter volume in V1 and V2, while AMD patients showed thinning of the cortex in V2. Neither patient group showed a significant difference in mean curvature of the visual cortex. DISCUSSION: The thinner cortex, smaller surface area and lower grey matter volume in the visual cortex of JMD patients are consistent with our previous results showing a volumetric reduction in their visual cortex. Finding comparable results using two rather different analysis techniques suggests the presence of marked cortical degeneration in the JMD patients. In the AMD patients, we found a thinner cortex in V2 but not in V1. In contrast to our previous VBM analysis, SBM revealed no volumetric reductions of the visual cortex. This suggests that the cortical changes in AMD patients are relatively subtle, as they apparently can be missed by one of the methods